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Growth holds up while purchasing power comes under pressure
An economy can keep growing while higher prices leave households with less room to manoeuvre.
On 23 September, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development publishes its interim outlook. Conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy supply and pushes prices higher. OECD examines how inventories, alternative suppliers and investment cushion the shock, separating observed developments from its scenario for 2026 and 2027.
The global economy has not stopped. OECD projects growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. It attributes part of that resilience to alternative energy supplies, inventories and AI-related activity. Those are useful capabilities to preserve, rather than grounds for declaring the shock harmless.[2]
The same exercise projects G20 inflation of 4.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. The report describes pressure on real incomes and savings buffers. Its energy path follows futures prices as of 14 September: a modelling assumption cannot insure anyone against the war continuing.[1][2]
OECD recommends targeted assistance and more diverse energy supplies. The first could protect exposed households more directly; the second could reduce vulnerability to another shock. Their value depends on access and results. A global growth figure cannot say who can afford the next bill.[1]
How we reached this judgment
What changed
OECD describes economies absorbing the energy shock better than expected. Its recovery scenario still rests on demanding assumptions.
Why it matters
Read resilience together with who benefits.
Where views differ
Households exposed to rising prices
- What it sees
- Disposable income.
- What it wants
- Accessible support.
- What it omits
- No household budget directly observed.
OECD and policymakers
- What it sees
- Growth, inflation and public finances.
- What it wants
- Cushion the shock without exhausting buffers.
- What it omits
- Projections remain conditional.
The provisional judgment
Aggregate resilience deserves recognition; the scenario guarantees neither cheaper energy nor protection for every household.
Movement: New thread
The receipts
The records we consulted and what they establish. Sources can have interests of their own.
- OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026: Weathering Successive ShocksOECD · 2026-09-23 · en
OECD projects 2.9% global growth in 2026; the energy-price path is a technical assumption.
- Global growth holds up despite successive shocks, but risks persistOECD · 2026-09-23 · en
The release describes buffers against the shock and projects 4.1% G20 inflation in 2026.