Nobody fits inside an average

2026-08-28 · Unpublished Issue 05 preparation, with an August 28 cutoff: The timeline shows limited upstream warning and continued alerts downstream; the exact physical trigger remains provisional.

Assessment at September 4: unresolved. The rescue sources inspected do not fully link the first cross-border signal to the warning actually received in upper Rasuwa. The two rescues establish a capacity to intervene; the evening update identifies no further survivor in the tunnel. Site-level accounting and evacuation possibilities still need verification.

Check for project-level missing-person counts and a family information channel.

Nepal disaster-management authority and project developers · Review on 2026-09-11

2026-08-03 · Public French archive, reporting week beginning August 3 (translated here): diplomacy had shifted the debate towards governance of the strait without resolving the central contradiction.

Public French Issue 02 set two separate checks, translated here: “Check the signed text, fee schedules, inspection rules, actual transits, insurance premiums and incidents.” and “Check the signed text, authorisation powers, fees and actual passage by non-privileged vessels.” As of September 4, documented attacks provide evidence on incidents and weaken the prospect of safety. The retained sources do not establish a signed text, its authorisation powers, applicable fee schedules and charges, inspection rules, a series of actual transits distinguishing non-privileged vessels, or insurance premiums. Those components remain unresolved; announced restrictions do not establish the conditions of each passage. The original archive assigned no calendar deadline. Private retrospective preparation for the August 7 dossier, written on September 7, set this test: “Check any joint text for the rule applying to a ship that declines payment.” Owner: Iranian and Omani foreign ministries; original deadline: August 21. As of September 4, unresolved: the retained evidence describes strikes and restrictions but does not establish the rule a joint text would apply to a ship declining payment. We lack that text and its refusal rule. This is distinct from the additional September 18 crossing check and Sucre’s satirical forecast.

Check documented merchant crossings without attacks or imposed payments, including their conditions.

Maritime authorities, shipowners and strait authorities · Review on 2026-09-18

2026-08-21 · Private Issue 04 preparation, reporting cutoff August 21: The Kryvyi Rih strike reinforces the finding of civilian exposure, including during rescue; the monthly comparison remains outstanding.

As of September 4, the Kyiv attacks reinforce the finding of civilian exposure. They do not settle the local rescue, warning and shelter check at Kryvyi Rih due August 28: we have not inspected the records needed for that comparison. The monthly test inherited from Issue 03 remains due September 18 and is not yet due.

Compare the next monthly account with July, separating weapons, locations and revisions to counts.

UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine · Review on 2026-09-18

2026-08-28 · Private Issue 05 preparation, reporting cutoff August 28: Vaccination has begun, but protection against Bundibugyo remains unknown and the outbreak continues to spread.

Assessment at September 4: unresolved. WHO’s guidance overview does not replace the full protocol and participant information; those documents were not inspected in this reconstruction. As of September 4, the private Nizi patient-intake and payment check, due August 21, remains unresolved: the inspected material does not supply those centre-specific records. Private preparation for August 7, written on September 7, asked: “Compare the share of Bunia admissions previously known to contact-tracing teams in a new comparable series.” Owner: MSF and Ituri health response coordination; original deadline: August 21. As of September 4, unresolved: the inspected material supplies no new comparable series of Bunia admissions previously known to contact-tracing teams. Nyankunde's alerts and national totals do not answer that centre-specific comparison. Public French Issue 02 also asked, translated here: “Track new cases, strike days, wages paid and reopened capacity in camps each week.” and “Compare disbursements, team payments and case trends over four weeks.” As of September 4, WHO reports inform case counts and national capacity, but do not supply a comparable weekly series combining new cases, strike days, wages paid and reopened capacity in camps. The four-week comparison of disbursements, payments and cases is also incomplete. Both follow-ups remain open, with no calendar deadline assigned in the archive. The September 18 local check is additional to the protocol check due September 4, the separate Nizi and Bunia checks due August 21 and both public follow-ups; it neither replaces nor postpones them.

In Nyankunde, compare each week's share of newly confirmed cases registered as contacts before diagnosis, using a consistent denominator.

Nyankunde health zone · Review on 2026-09-18

2026-08-28 · Private Issue 05 preparation, reporting cutoff August 28: UNICEF describes fragile gains using several indicators; attacks threaten the means of sustaining them.

WHO’s warning broadens the nutrition inquiry to water, diagnosis and rehabilitation. It does not settle the replacement-of-stocks test, which remains due September 11.

Verify replacement of destroyed nutrition stocks and delivery to their intended recipients.

UNICEF and Palestine Nutrition Cluster partners · Review on 2026-09-11

2026-08-28 · Unpublished Issue 05 preparation, with an August 28 cutoff: A departure is announced, but cohort identity, individual consent and independent safeguards are not demonstrated.

We correct Issue 01's categorical description of “5,000 Rohingya” above, restoring the attribution to Anwar and the distinction between the two groups. Assessment at September 4: unresolved. UNHCR denies involvement; that does not establish whether each selected person has effective access to independent advice through another route. The original English edition used these two checks: “First documented group transfer of Rohingya from Malaysian custody to Myanmar authorities; publication or leak of the agreement's terms; confirmed absence of UNHCR or independent monitors at departure and reception points; named organizations verifying arrivals inside Myanmar.” and “Obtain the protocol, independent access, and follow-up for each person after return.” As of September 4, the inspected sources establish neither the full protocol nor individual interviews, which the French watchlist expressly required. UNHCR's denial does not establish the absence of every independent monitor at both departure and reception points. The announced September 29 departure is still future: no first Rohingya group transfer, named verification of arrivals or individual post-return follow-up is established by these sources. Nor were the agreement's published or leaked terms inspected. The English twelve-month forecast is neither due nor confirmed, including its ethnicity and voluntariness-screening criteria. No calendar deadline was assigned to the public checks.

Check for an independent mechanism providing individual advice and refusal without retaliation.

Malaysia Home Ministry · Review on 2026-09-18