Will the new US sanctions change Tehran’s choices, and at what cost to ordinary Iranians?

Working hypotheses

No public hypothesis yet.

The red thread

1. New thread
   Week ending 2026-08-30
   Issue 05

   Washington widens the economic squeeze on Iran

   Washington adds designations, expands sanctioning authority and suspends specified civilian licences; the additional August 28 banking restriction remains a proposal.

   Judgment : The economic escalation is concrete; its political effectiveness and distribution of costs remain unproven.

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   Sources

   • Treasury Launches Unprecedented Campaign Against Iranian Regime on Economic D-Day

     Treasury announces the new designations.

   • Determination pursuant to section 1(a)(i) of Executive Order 13902

     The determination expands sectoral scope without automatically designating every participant.

   • Notice of suspension of Iran general licenses

     Specified civilian authorisations are suspended, with a conditional wind-down provision.

   • Trump's 'economic D-Day' threats become warnings for countries to sever financial ties with Iran

     AP describes currency weakness before the announcement and a saver in Tehran.

   • Removal of Syria designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism; Iran-related actions

     Removal of the designation and its associated prohibitions.

   • Iran’s Access to UAE Banks Targeted Under Operation Economic Outcast

     Proposed Banque Misr UAE restriction, distinct from two enacted OFAC designations.

   • Iran-related and Counter Terrorism Designations

     OFAC adds Reza Mohammad Taeedi and Kameng Trading Limited to its list.

   • Joint Statement between Oman and Iran following Foreign Ministers’ consultations

     Proposed temporary corridor and joint mine-clearing framework; negotiations remain ongoing.

   • US Enters Into Oil Agreement With Venezuela, Trump Says

     Trump announces an agreement; implementation is unverified.