Hormuz: ships are still waiting for peace

Two vessels linked to the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ADNOC, were attacked while crossing Hormuz on Thursday evening, with no injuries reported. In its August 14 statement, the UAE foreign ministry blamed Iran. Reuters reported no immediate Iranian response. The record here establishes the announcement and the accusation, not an independent investigation identifying the attacker.^[1][2]

Traffic is thinning while Washington says it can sustain its blockade. Reuters reports Kpler's count of nine crossings on Thursday, compared with more than 130 a day before the war. Ships travelling with their transponders off may escape detection. Even with that limit, the scale shows how far the route remains from normal operation. It cannot apportion the causes among fear of attacks, the blockade, insurance and shipowners' decisions.^[1]

The French Issue 02 did not simply predict reopening: it warned that an agreement on controlled lanes and ambiguous fees could establish a lasting power to permit or deny passage. On August 13, an Iranian parliamentary committee approved a proposal including a ban on passage by assets and equipment from the United States, Israel and other countries described as “hostile”, Reuters reports, citing the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Committee approval is neither an international agreement nor proof of a rule already being enforced. It nevertheless gives more specific form to the power of exclusion we were tracking.^[1]

Control becomes more explicit while the inspected records leave payments unresolved. Attacks also show why permission alone would not make the route safe. Issue 02 already required actual and non-privileged passage, alongside the signed text, fees, inspections, insurance and incidents. That programme remains open. The additional August 28 check does not replace it. A strait can have rules and remain closed in a shipowner’s decision.^[1]